With the US presidential election just nine months on the horizon, it looks like American voters will encounter familiar faces from the 2020 race: Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Recent data from decentralized cryptocurrency-based prediction platform Polymarket suggests that Trump, the country’s 45th president, is currently leading with a 48% chance of winning.
US election forecast for 2024: Trump in the lead with 48% in Polymarket, Biden trails behind
As electoral competition intensifies in the United States despite Vivek Ramaswamy’s withdrawal, former President Donald Trump has maintained a substantial lead over his Republican rivals in recent months. Trump recently triumphed in the Iowa Caucus, securing an early victory in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. He achieved a commanding lead with a 51% margin, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in second place and former Ambassador from the USA at the UN, Nikki Haley, who came in third place.
According to prediction platform Polymarket, Donald Trump has an 89% chance of winning the Republican Party nomination, while Nikki Haley has a 6% chance. On the Democratic front, Joe Biden is projected to have a 78% chance of being nominated, surpassing California Governor Gavin Newsom’s 6% chance. Basically, Polymarket operates as a decentralized forecasting platform, allowing users to buy and trade stocks based on possible events and outcomes. This marketplace leverages blockchain technology to improve transparency and security.
As the November 5, 2024 elections approach, current trends on Polymarket suggest that Trump is the favorite, with a 48% lead, surpassing Biden’s 36%. After Biden, Haley is considered to have a 3% chance of winning the general election. Interestingly, despite his absence from the race, Vivek Ramaswamy has a 2% chance. Robert Kennedy Jr. also has a 2% chance of winning, as indicated by data from Polymarket. Furthermore, this cryptocurrency-based prediction market is not the only betting platform predicting a Trump victory.
Oddschecker data reveals that Trump has a 45.5% chance of winning the election, compared to Biden’s 33.3%. Nikki Haley has a 5.9% chance of winning in her analysis. Meanwhile, the Bet Ohio portal places Trump in the lead with a 46% chance, followed by Biden with 36% and Haley with 9% in the 2024 presidential race. In particular, both Kennedy and DeSantis have a probability of 3%, as recorded by Bet Ohio on January 17, 2024. Additionally, betting site Covers indicates that Trump is ahead with a 47.6% probability, while Biden is behind with a 34% probability.