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Bitcoin Model That Predicted a Peak of $60,000 Now Targets $732,000 Next

The price of Bitcoin can be unpredictable. But surprisingly, a specific model managed to predict the 2021 peak above $60,000 already in 2019.

This same model now points to a peak close to $732,000 per coin. Is this a realistic estimate or pure hope? Let’s take a look at the model and find out.

Predict the latest bull market peak years in advance

In 2019, the preferred model for predicting future Bitcoin prices was the now-debunked Plan B Stock-To-Flow (S2F) model. But around the same time, Greg Cipolaro attempted to modify the S2F model with very accurate results.

While Plan B failed to raise the price per BTC above the projected $100,000, Cipolaro’s model peaked at around $60,000.

Bitcoin hit $65,000 in April 2021 and then $68,000 in November 2021. At the very least, BTCUSD beat its modest estimates, while the price fell below Plan B by miles.

The model is based on post-halving supply price targets. More important than what happened after the 2020 halving, however, is what Cipolaro’s model predicts after the next halving.

Could Bitcoin hit $732,000 after the 2024 halving?

While it’s notable to get it right just once based on Cipolaro’s model, it could be a matter of luck or coincidence. If the model works again, you are more likely to find something meaningful.

Especially when the next projected target is $732,000 per BTC. The target is much higher than most existing estimates, which point to between $100,000 and $200,000 per coin.

This represents an increase of approximately 1,800% from current levels. From the Black Thursday low of $3,800 to the 2021 high of $68,000 represents a return of almost 1,600%, so these figures are not out of the realm of possibilities for the king of cryptocurrencies.

During 2017 alone, Bitcoin increased by more than 2,000%. And this occurred after the price had already appreciated more than 400%. Today, Bitcoin is up 140% from its 2022 lows. Could the leading cryptocurrency by market cap add another 1,800% to reach the peak predicted by the model?

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Bitcoin Sharks and Whales Settle for $2.2 Billion, But BTC Holds at $37,000

Network data shows that Bitcoin sharks and whales engaged in a sell-off worth around $2.2 billion last week.

Bitcoin wallets with 100 to 10,000 BTC have been sold recently

As analyst Ali noted in a post on X, large BTC investors may have reaped their profits recently. The indicator of interest here is the “BTC Supply Distribution”, which tracks the total amount of Bitcoin held by different groups of wallets in the sector.

Addresses or investors are divided into these groups based on the total number of coins they currently hold. For example, the 1-10 coin cohort includes all wallets with a balance of at least 1 and a maximum of 10 BTC.

In the context of the current discussion, the focus is on the range of 100 to 10,000 BTC. The group of 100 to 1,000 coins is popularly called “sharks”, while the group of 1,000 to 10,000 includes whales.

Both groups have significant values, so their behavior may be relevant to the market in general. Although whales are much larger than both and therefore have much more influence on the network.

This is a remarkable amount, and considering that the timing of the distribution coincided with BTC’s last break above the $37,000 level, it seems possible that these key holders participated in this massive sell-off to reap the profits they would have accrued at the meeting.

Sharks and whales also participated in some selling when BTC surpassed $35,000 last month, but both the rate and scale of the sell-off were lower compared to today as the supply distribution for these cohorts plummeted sharply this time around.

So far, though, despite this massive sell-off, Bitcoin hasn’t had much trouble staying around the $37,000 mark. The asset initially suffered a pullback when the sell-off began, as it fell back to $36,000, but quickly recovered.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Bulls Resume Ascent and Test 37235 – November 12, 2023

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) resumed its upward gains early in the Asian session, with the pair finding additional bids above the 36,892.78 level, representing a 38.2% retracement of the 35,103.14 to 37,999 appreciating range. Upward progress was temporarily halted around the 37,221.93 area. . which represents a 50% reduction in the depreciation range from 37,548.80 to 36,923.15. Key stops were chosen above the 34,965.04 and 37,516.08 levels during BTC/USD’s recent strongest appreciation since May 2022, upside price objectives associated with buying activity around the 19,568.52, 15,460 and 24,900 levels . Additional upside price objectives in these appreciating ranges include the 38,602, 42721 and 44481 areas. Following continued appreciation, areas of technical support and possible buying pressure include 34757, 33499, 32873, 32561, 31351 and 30837.

Large Stops were also recently elected above the 35,912.28 area, representing a 38.2% retracement of the depreciating range from the all-time high of 69,000 to 15,460. Furthermore, large Stops were triggered above the 37,362 area. maximums of the month. , an upside price objective related to historical buying pressure around the 3858 and 15460 levels. Traders are observing that the 50-bar MA (4-hourly) is bullishly indicating above the 100-bar MA (4-hourly) and above the 200 bar MA (every 4 hours). Additionally, the 50-bar SMA (hourly) is bullish, indicating above the 100-bar MM (hourly) and above the 200-bar SMA (hourly).

Price activity is closest to the 50-bar MA (4-hourly) at 35,613.79 and the 50-bar MA (Hourly) at 36,958.23.

Technical support is expected around 31238.97/30028.62/28818.26 and stops are expected below.

Technical resistance is expected around 38584.16/39596.82/42721.31 and stops are expected above.

Bitcoin Price Analysis Daily News.

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Coinbase Shares Rise Amid Market Share Stagnation

Despite the delisting of Binance.US, Coinbase has surprisingly failed to gain a larger share of the US cryptocurrency market. A recent report from Kaiko highlights Coinbase’s stagnant market share, which has hovered around 55% since May. On the other hand, rivals such as Kraken and LMAX Digital are quickly reclaiming the space left open by Binance.US, and Bitstamp is also marking an increase in its US presence amid growing legal complexities.

Coinbase stalls as Kraken advances

Coinbase, recognized as the top U.S. cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, appears impassive in its leadership position, according to data from Kaiko. Kraken, slightly behind, is moving forward, gradually taking over Coinbase’s market dominance. According to the data, Coinbase’s 24-hour trading volume is approximately $2.4 billion, significantly lower than Binance’s $9.34 billion in the global spot market.

Regulatory hurdles cast a shadow

On the contrary, to compound the challenges, the US crypto landscape is navigating through a fog of regulatory uncertainty. The SEC and CFTC maintain close scrutiny, especially with allegations of securities regulation violations. Notably, the SEC took action against Binance and its US entity along with its founder, Changpeng Zhao. They are accused of secretly facilitating transactions for US customers against their policies. Coinbase has also felt the pressure of the regulator, with accusations of operating without proper records.

Despite these regulatory storms, there is a glimmer of optimism for investors. The possible approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF could catapult COIN shares to new heights as it would generate enormous enthusiasm for the cryptocurrency and Coinbase’s revenue would increase.

Furthermore, the company’s path to profitability is promising, as reflected by its near-flat profits in the third quarter of 2023. With an unexpected increase in profits and a slight increase in after-hours trading, Coinbase’s stock price is currently at $91.96, reflecting a 5% increase.