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Polymarket predicts that Trump will be the winner of the 2024 US elections with a 48% chance, Biden and Haley lag behind in predictions

With the US presidential election just nine months on the horizon, it looks like American voters will encounter familiar faces from the 2020 race: Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Recent data from decentralized cryptocurrency-based prediction platform Polymarket suggests that Trump, the country’s 45th president, is currently leading with a 48% chance of winning.

US election forecast for 2024: Trump in the lead with 48% in Polymarket, Biden trails behind

As electoral competition intensifies in the United States despite Vivek Ramaswamy’s withdrawal, former President Donald Trump has maintained a substantial lead over his Republican rivals in recent months. Trump recently triumphed in the Iowa Caucus, securing an early victory in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. He achieved a commanding lead with a 51% margin, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in second place and former Ambassador from the USA at the UN, Nikki Haley, who came in third place.

According to prediction platform Polymarket, Donald Trump has an 89% chance of winning the Republican Party nomination, while Nikki Haley has a 6% chance. On the Democratic front, Joe Biden is projected to have a 78% chance of being nominated, surpassing California Governor Gavin Newsom’s 6% chance. Basically, Polymarket operates as a decentralized forecasting platform, allowing users to buy and trade stocks based on possible events and outcomes. This marketplace leverages blockchain technology to improve transparency and security.

As the November 5, 2024 elections approach, current trends on Polymarket suggest that Trump is the favorite, with a 48% lead, surpassing Biden’s 36%. After Biden, Haley is considered to have a 3% chance of winning the general election. Interestingly, despite his absence from the race, Vivek Ramaswamy has a 2% chance. Robert Kennedy Jr. also has a 2% chance of winning, as indicated by data from Polymarket. Furthermore, this cryptocurrency-based prediction market is not the only betting platform predicting a Trump victory.

Oddschecker data reveals that Trump has a 45.5% chance of winning the election, compared to Biden’s 33.3%. Nikki Haley has a 5.9% chance of winning in her analysis. Meanwhile, the Bet Ohio portal places Trump in the lead with a 46% chance, followed by Biden with 36% and Haley with 9% in the 2024 presidential race. In particular, both Kennedy and DeSantis have a probability of 3%, as recorded by Bet Ohio on January 17, 2024. Additionally, betting site Covers indicates that Trump is ahead with a 47.6% probability, while Biden is behind with a 34% probability.
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Bitcoin cryptocurrency exchange Cryptocurrency news

Bitcoin Ordinal Subscriptions Surpass 55 Million, Reach Third Highest Daily Record

After the weekend, the number of ordinal subscriptions to the Bitcoin blockchain exceeded 55 million. Notably, on January 13, 2024, the blockchain witnessed its third-highest day of registrations, settling a staggering 477,751 registration-based transactions on Saturday. Furthermore, since first registration began in December 2022, bitcoin miners have accumulated $246 million worth of bitcoins, capitalizing on this growing trend.

Miners raised 246 million dollars with 55 million registrations

From December 28, 2023 to January 12, 2024, the pace of daily ordinal inflows into the Bitcoin blockchain slowed moderately. However, a peak occurred on Saturday, January 13, marking a record number of daily registrations. This date became the third largest in terms of registrations, with a staggering 477,751 added to the blockchain. On that day, approximately 652,483 transactions were processed, with records representing a notable 73.22% of all transfers confirmed by miners.

Continuing the trend, on Sunday, January 14, 2024, the blockchain saw another substantial 446,783 entries added to the distributed ledger system. This indicates that, of the 591,806 verified transfers, a substantial 75.49% were record-based. Furthermore, after these two record-breaking days, the total number of registrations this weekend impressively exceeded 55 million. Between these records, miners have accumulated a total of 5,750 BTC, valued at $246 million based on current BTC exchange rates.

On January 13, miners were paid about $2.7 million in registration fees, and by the next day, miners had accumulated another $4.94 million. Bitcoin miners are reaping the benefits of the fees paid for subscriptions and as of December 16, 2023, miners have collected $9.9 million in fees. Additionally, the number of entries per block has increased considerably as miners have learned ways to include as many as possible. The data also shows that there are also 278,296 recursive inscriptions in the chain.

Recursive ordinal inscriptions involve retrieving and incorporating data from existing inscriptions to create new ones. In the domain of ordinal entries traded in non-fungible token (NFT) markets, Bitcoin has taken the lead over the past 30 days, with $669.53 million in digital collectible sales. Ethereum, previously the leader in NFT blockchain, recorded $321.18 million in sales during the same period. However, on a weekly basis, BTC’s lead is marginal, with sales of $99.68 million, narrowly edging out Ethereum’s $94.42 million.
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cryptocurrency exchange Cryptocurrency news

Ripple CTO David Schwartz Reveals Unexpected Truths About XRP Distribution and Supply

David Schwartz, Ripple’s Chief Technology Officer, recently shared his views on the company’s strategy regarding its XRP holdings. These revelations provide a better understanding of Ripple’s approach to managing its cryptocurrency holdings.

Ripple’s XRP Allocation

Ripple’s XRP assets are divided into two different categories. The first includes the XRP currently available in Ripple wallets. The second category includes XRP in escrow on the ledger, scheduled for release in the coming months. However, it is important to note that Ripple does not have immediate access to custodial XRP until its scheduled monthly release. In the past, a significant portion of the released XRP was returned to escrow.

XRP Holdings Decisions and Strategies

Responding to a user’s query, Schwartz explained Ripple’s options regarding its XRP holdings. In principle, Ripple can either maintain its current XRP holdings or choose to reduce them. According to Schwartz, the company planned to reduce its XRP holdings as quickly as possible. However, he questions the feasibility and potential benefits of this original strategy.

Initially, the company considered using giveaways to reduce its supply of XRP. But as XRP gained market value, there was a chance that people would take advantage of these freebies, which led to their discontinuation. Ripple has also explored alternative methods, such as B. Locked Sales and using XRP to incentivize affiliates. Ultimately, however, these strategies were similar to selling XRP directly.

Long-term vision and trusting decisions

Schwartz noted that, despite being over a decade old, Ripple is making good progress on its initial five-year plan. He also answered questions from the community about managing deposited XRP. Additionally, Schwartz expressed ambivalence toward the escrow account itself, rejecting the idea of burning the escrow stock on the grounds that it might lead to a different outcome.

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Bitcoin Wallet cryptocurrency exchange Cryptocurrency news

Michael Saylor Selling $216 Million of Microstrategy’s Shares, Plans to Buy More Bitcoin

Microstrategy’s executive chairman, Michael Saylor, is selling $216 million of his company’s shares, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The pro-bitcoin executive intends to use some of the proceeds to acquire additional bitcoin for his personal holdings.
Michael Saylor Plans to Buy More Bitcoin for Himself

Microstrategy (Nasdaq: MSTR)’s executive chairman, Michael Saylor, plans to sell 315,000 shares of his company’s common stock worth $216 million, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Jan. 2.

Microstrategy previously disclosed Saylor’s plan to sell up to 400,000 shares of company stock over four months. In its November 10-Q filing with the SEC, the Nasdaq-listed firm explained that the pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plan, triggered by a stock option that expires on April 30, 2024, involves daily sales of 5,000 shares contingent on a minimum price condition.

During Microstrategy’s Q3 2023 earnings call on Nov. 2, 2023, Saylor explained that he plans to use some of the proceeds to buy more bitcoin for his personal account.

“I was granted a stock option in 2014 with respect to 400,000 shares, which is going to expire next April if I don’t exercise it by then,” the executive chairman began. “For almost a decade now at my request, the company has only paid me a $1 salary and I’ve chosen not to be eligible for any cash bonuses.” Saylor continued:

Exercising this option will allow me to address some financial obligations as well as to acquire additional bitcoin for my personal account.

While Saylor has not disclosed how much bitcoin he owns recently, he said in October 2020 that he personally owns 17,732 BTC. Meanwhile, his software intelligence firm publicly reported holdings of 189,150 bitcoin as of December 2023.

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Bitcoin cryptocurrency exchange Cryptocurrency Investment Cryptocurrency news

Bitcoin Spot ETF: Bitwise Closes Ranks with $200 Million Initial Fund

Competition among Spot Bitcoin ETF issuers is intensifying as the period for possible approval of these funds approaches. Asset manager Bitwise is the issuer currently making waves as it could potentially overtake the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, in terms of seed funding for its respective ETFs.

Bitwise Bitcoin ETF Could Receive $200 Million Seed Funding

Bitwise’s latest amendment to its S-1 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) shows that the asset manager has secured investor interest for its ETF to receive $200 million at launch. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted its importance, saying it “exceeds” BlackRock’s initial fund of $10 million.

The analyst noted that Bitwise actually seeding its ETF with such an amount could be a “huge help” in the early days of the run. It is believed that the SEC will likely approve the pending ETF applications simultaneously. As such, Bitwise’s ability to create shares worth $200 million could give the asset manager an edge in terms of meeting client demands.

Bitwise had already demonstrated its intention to lead from the start following the launch of its commercial Bitcoin ETF. This move could help the asset manager gain a lot of interest in their Bitcoin ETF even before launch. This way, the public sees it as the first option at the time of launch.

Notably, Bitwise did not mention who the authorized participant (AP) of its ETF would be. The AP would act as an intermediary between the investor and the ETF issuer, as they are responsible for creating and redeeming ETF shares. While Bitwise has not named its AP, other issuers such as BlackRock have included it in their latest S-1 filing with the SEC.

BTC ETF Issuers Show Their Hands in Latest Wave of Registrations

Bitcoin ETF spot issuers have made some notable additions in their most recent and final amendment to their S-1 filings. These inclusions also give an idea of the strategy these issuers may seek to adopt to attract investors to their funds. In the case of Fidelity, the asset manager will seek to attract investors with its relatively low fees.

Balchunas noted that Fidelity’s “sponsorship fee” of 0.39% turns out to be the lowest so far among other issuers that have disclosed theirs. Interestingly, Invesco is adopting a more attractive strategy, as it revealed in its latest amendment that it will waive fees for the first six months and the first $5 billion in assets.

The Bloomberg analyst mentioned that fee wars will continue to exist in the Bitcoin spot ETF arena as issuers look to outdo each other.