Category: Bitcoin

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Bitcoin Model That Predicted a Peak of $60,000 Now Targets $732,000 Next

The price of Bitcoin can be unpredictable. But surprisingly, a specific model managed to predict the 2021 peak above $60,000 already in 2019.

This same model now points to a peak close to $732,000 per coin. Is this a realistic estimate or pure hope? Let’s take a look at the model and find out.

Predict the latest bull market peak years in advance

In 2019, the preferred model for predicting future Bitcoin prices was the now-debunked Plan B Stock-To-Flow (S2F) model. But around the same time, Greg Cipolaro attempted to modify the S2F model with very accurate results.

While Plan B failed to raise the price per BTC above the projected $100,000, Cipolaro’s model peaked at around $60,000.

Bitcoin hit $65,000 in April 2021 and then $68,000 in November 2021. At the very least, BTCUSD beat its modest estimates, while the price fell below Plan B by miles.

The model is based on post-halving supply price targets. More important than what happened after the 2020 halving, however, is what Cipolaro’s model predicts after the next halving.

Could Bitcoin hit $732,000 after the 2024 halving?

While it’s notable to get it right just once based on Cipolaro’s model, it could be a matter of luck or coincidence. If the model works again, you are more likely to find something meaningful.

Especially when the next projected target is $732,000 per BTC. The target is much higher than most existing estimates, which point to between $100,000 and $200,000 per coin.

This represents an increase of approximately 1,800% from current levels. From the Black Thursday low of $3,800 to the 2021 high of $68,000 represents a return of almost 1,600%, so these figures are not out of the realm of possibilities for the king of cryptocurrencies.

During 2017 alone, Bitcoin increased by more than 2,000%. And this occurred after the price had already appreciated more than 400%. Today, Bitcoin is up 140% from its 2022 lows. Could the leading cryptocurrency by market cap add another 1,800% to reach the peak predicted by the model?

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Bitcoin Sharks and Whales Settle for $2.2 Billion, But BTC Holds at $37,000

Network data shows that Bitcoin sharks and whales engaged in a sell-off worth around $2.2 billion last week.

Bitcoin wallets with 100 to 10,000 BTC have been sold recently

As analyst Ali noted in a post on X, large BTC investors may have reaped their profits recently. The indicator of interest here is the “BTC Supply Distribution”, which tracks the total amount of Bitcoin held by different groups of wallets in the sector.

Addresses or investors are divided into these groups based on the total number of coins they currently hold. For example, the 1-10 coin cohort includes all wallets with a balance of at least 1 and a maximum of 10 BTC.

In the context of the current discussion, the focus is on the range of 100 to 10,000 BTC. The group of 100 to 1,000 coins is popularly called “sharks”, while the group of 1,000 to 10,000 includes whales.

Both groups have significant values, so their behavior may be relevant to the market in general. Although whales are much larger than both and therefore have much more influence on the network.

This is a remarkable amount, and considering that the timing of the distribution coincided with BTC’s last break above the $37,000 level, it seems possible that these key holders participated in this massive sell-off to reap the profits they would have accrued at the meeting.

Sharks and whales also participated in some selling when BTC surpassed $35,000 last month, but both the rate and scale of the sell-off were lower compared to today as the supply distribution for these cohorts plummeted sharply this time around.

So far, though, despite this massive sell-off, Bitcoin hasn’t had much trouble staying around the $37,000 mark. The asset initially suffered a pullback when the sell-off began, as it fell back to $36,000, but quickly recovered.

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Bitcoin Bitcoin Wallet

Bitcoin Halving: When is the next Bitcoin halving date?

The Bitcoin halving date is usually a quadrennial event on the Bitcoin blockchain where the reward assigned to miners for successfully verifying and adding new blocks to the blockchain is substantially reduced. The term Bitcoin halving refers to the phenomenon where the reward for mining Bitcoin is cut in half.

The importance of the halving event lies in its role in reducing the rate of creation of new Bitcoins as the cryptocurrency approaches its fixed supply limit. In 2009, each block mined on the chain generated a reward of 50 BTC. As of October 2023, there are approximately 19.5 million BTC in circulation, leaving only around 1.5 million bitcoins to be released through mining rewards.

What is Bitcoin Halving?

After the Bitcoin network successfully processes 210,000 blocks approximately every four years, there is a reduction in the block rewards given to Bitcoin miners for their transaction processing efforts. This phenomenon is commonly known as the “bitcoin halving,” as it precisely halves the rate at which new BTC enter circulation.

This reward mechanism will last until approximately the year 2140, at which time the default limit of 21 million coins will be reached. Beyond this point, miners will be compensated through transaction processing fees paid by network users. This fee will eventually serve as motivation for miners to participate and sustain the network.

Previous Bitcoin Halving Events

There have been a total of three Bitcoin halving events so far. The first halving event occurred on November 28, 2012, in which the reward value for each block mined was 25 bitcoins. Subsequently, the second halving event occurred on July 9, 2016, halving the reward value again, reaching 12.5 bitcoins.

Lastly, the most recent halving event occurred on May 11, 2020, where the reward was reduced to 6.25 Bitcoins for each successfully mined block. With the next halving on the horizon, scheduled for mid-2024, the block reward will be 3,125 BTC.

Why does the halving happen every 4 years?

The Bitcoin mining algorithm is designed to seek the discovery of new blocks approximately every 10 minutes. However, the actual time needed to find the blocks can vary, sometimes exceeding 10 minutes and sometimes less. This variation in block mining times may shorten or extend the duration needed to reach the next halving milestone. For example, if blocks consistently take an average of 9.66 minutes to mine, it would take approximately 1,409 days to mine the 210,000 blocks needed (assuming four years of 1,461 days, including one day for a leap year).

When will the next Bitcoin halving date be?

The next Bitcoin halving is expected to take place around April 2024, coinciding with the mining of block 740,000. During this event, the block reward will be reduced from 6.25 bitcoins to 3,125 bitcoins. The exact date of the halving remains uncertain due to variable block generation time, with the network aiming for an average of one block every ten minutes.

BTC Price Prediction After BTC Halving

Bitcoin price is projected to reach an all-time high (ATH) after the upcoming Bitcoin halving event. Market experts, traditional financial companies, and CoinGape Media analysts predicted that the price of Bitcoin would surpass $120,000. The current ATH price is $68,789. Some experts, such as the CEO of investment management company ARK Invest, Cathie Wood, believe that the price of BTC will reach $1 million by 2030.
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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Bulls Resume Ascent and Test 37235 – November 12, 2023

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) resumed its upward gains early in the Asian session, with the pair finding additional bids above the 36,892.78 level, representing a 38.2% retracement of the 35,103.14 to 37,999 appreciating range. Upward progress was temporarily halted around the 37,221.93 area. . which represents a 50% reduction in the depreciation range from 37,548.80 to 36,923.15. Key stops were chosen above the 34,965.04 and 37,516.08 levels during BTC/USD’s recent strongest appreciation since May 2022, upside price objectives associated with buying activity around the 19,568.52, 15,460 and 24,900 levels . Additional upside price objectives in these appreciating ranges include the 38,602, 42721 and 44481 areas. Following continued appreciation, areas of technical support and possible buying pressure include 34757, 33499, 32873, 32561, 31351 and 30837.

Large Stops were also recently elected above the 35,912.28 area, representing a 38.2% retracement of the depreciating range from the all-time high of 69,000 to 15,460. Furthermore, large Stops were triggered above the 37,362 area. maximums of the month. , an upside price objective related to historical buying pressure around the 3858 and 15460 levels. Traders are observing that the 50-bar MA (4-hourly) is bullishly indicating above the 100-bar MA (4-hourly) and above the 200 bar MA (every 4 hours). Additionally, the 50-bar SMA (hourly) is bullish, indicating above the 100-bar MM (hourly) and above the 200-bar SMA (hourly).

Price activity is closest to the 50-bar MA (4-hourly) at 35,613.79 and the 50-bar MA (Hourly) at 36,958.23.

Technical support is expected around 31238.97/30028.62/28818.26 and stops are expected below.

Technical resistance is expected around 38584.16/39596.82/42721.31 and stops are expected above.

Bitcoin Price Analysis Daily News.