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Goldman Sachs urges investors to buy commodities now; expect stocks to suffer as inflation remains high

Global investment bank Goldman Sachs has urged investors to buy commodities now and worry about a recession later. The company’s analysts see commodities as “the best asset class to own later in the cycle, where demand remains above supply.” Meanwhile, “stocks may take a hit as inflation remains high and the Fed is more likely to surprise on the aggressive side,” Goldman noted.

Goldman Sachs Recommendation: Buy Commodities Now

Global investment bank Goldman Sachs has recommended that investors buy commodities. In a note titled “Buy Commodities Now, Worry About Recession Later,” published on Monday, Goldman wrote: “Our economists view the risk of a recession outside of Europe in the next 12 months as relatively low.” Company analysts including Sabine Schels, Jeffrey Currie and Damien Courvalin explained:

With oil a commodity of last resort in an era of severe energy shortages, we believe the downturn in the entire oil complex offers an attractive entry point for long-term investment.

In the US, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last week: “We are taking strong and swift action to moderate demand to better align with supply and keep inflation expectations anchored. We will continue this way until we are sure the job is done.”

Furthermore, European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel noted on Saturday that central banks around the world are at risk of losing public confidence and must now act forcefully to combat inflation, including if you drag your savings into a recession.

“From a cross-asset perspective, equities may suffer as inflation remains elevated and the Fed is more likely to surprise on the aggressive side,” Goldman analysts further noted, explaining:

Commodities, on the other hand, are the best asset class to own later in the cycle, where demand remains above supply.

The final phase of the cycle normally implies an increase in inflationary pressures and an economy that exceeds the maximum rate of economic growth.

Goldman Sachs also warned: “We recognize that the macroeconomic environment remains challenging and the US dollar could rise further in the near term.”

Currie, who heads commodity research at Goldman Sachs, believes recessions are a natural part of a prolonged commodity supercycle. He told Reuters in November last year: “We expect a structural bull market in commodities, very similar to what we saw in the 2000s or 1970s.”

The analyst told CNBC in June that we are at the start of a commodity supercycle. “This is the first round of a commodity super cycle, it’s not just oil and gas, it’s metals, it’s mining, it’s agriculture, because the sector has suffered from over a decade of underinvestment,” he said.

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Binance will help the South Korean city of Busan increase

cryptocurrency adoption and develop a blockchain ecosystem
Binance is helping the South Korean city of Busan “increase cryptocurrency adoption in and out of the city”. The global cryptocurrency exchange will also support the development of the city’s blockchain ecosystem and the Busan Digital Asset Exchange.

Binance Signs Memorandum of Understanding with the City of Busan

Cryptocurrency exchange Binance announced on Friday that it has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the metropolitan city of Busan. Busan, located at the southeastern tip of the Korean Peninsula, is the second largest city in South Korea, with approximately 3.4 million inhabitants.

“As part of the agreement, the City of Busan will receive technological and infrastructure support from Binance for the development of the city’s blockchain ecosystem and the promotion of the Busan Digital Asset Exchange,” Binance explained.

“Another form of cooperation between the two parties will be the sharing of the order book”, added the company, adding that it will establish a presence in Busan by the end of the year.

Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) said, “We are happy to work with the City of Busan to bring about tangible blockchain-related developments that benefit and support the city’s innovation efforts.” The executive opined:

Through our industry-leading position and technology expertise, combined with the City of Busan's strong support of the blockchain industry, we hope to help increase cryptocurrency adoption in the city and beyond.

“We look forward to our close cooperation with the city to support the establishment of digital asset exchanges and various blockchain industries,” added Zhao.

Busan Mayor Heong-Joon Park commented:

With this agreement, we are one step closer to establishing the Busan Digital Asset Exchange as an integrated global platform for digital assets.

“By making Busan a specialist blockchain city that attracts global attention, we will fuel a new growth engine for the local economy and make it a global digital financial hub,” he added.

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The most profitable buy signal in Bitcoin has just been activated

The latest trend in Bitcoin’s “hash tape” indicator has just formed a pattern that has historically been a buy signal for the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin hash tape buy signal deactivates when miner capitulation comes to an end

As one analyst explained on Twitter, the capitulation phase of BTC miners appears to have ended today after 71 days.

Before trying to understand what the “hash tape” indicator does, it’s best to first take a look at the “hash rate” metric.

Hashrate is a measure of the total amount of computing power connected to the Bitcoin blockchain by miners. During bear markets, the income of some miners drops so much that running their trades becomes unprofitable for them. At such times, your only option is to take your machines offline, which records a downward trend in hashrate.

In previous bear markets, troughs often occurred during these periods of miner capitulations, where large numbers of miners quickly go offline due to low income.

One indicator to identify these periods of miner capitulation is hash tapes. Conceived by the aforementioned analyst Charles Edwards, this metric uses two different moving averages of the hashrate, the 30-day MA and the 60-day MA, to observe changes in miner behavior.

Here is a chart that shows the trend of Bitcoin hash tapes in recent years:

The 30-day SMA hashrate appears to have surpassed the 60-day SMA version | Source: Charles Edwards on Twitter

As you can see in the chart above, the capitulation periods of Bitcoin miners are marked with the hash ribbon indicator.

Whenever the 30-day MA version of the hashrate drops below the 60-day MA line, miners are assumed to be starting a capitulation phase.

A break above the 60-day MA by the 30-day MA, on the other hand, implies an end to the capitulation of these chain validators.

When this type of capitulation occurs that ends in the crossing of hash tapes, a buy signal is triggered for the cryptocurrency.

But even among these buy signals, there are some that are especially profitable. These signals are formed after miner capitulations that occur more than 2 years after any halving event.

Today, hash tapes once again painted the historic pattern of the buy signal as the miner’s latest capitulation series came to an end after 71 days. It has also been over 2 years since the last halving, which following the previous trend would suggest that this is one of those rare “most profitable” buy signals for Bitcoin.

BTC price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin price hovers around $21,300, down 13% from last week.

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Investor Sentiment Drops as Cryptocurrency Market Loses $100 Billion

The cryptocurrency market has now faced another challenge. In the last day, bitcoin prices fell by around $2,000, causing the cryptocurrency market to lose a significant amount of value. As it stands now, the value of the cryptocurrency market has fallen over $100 billion and is now perilously close to falling below $1 trillion once again. This affected market sentiment, causing more fear in the market.

The market turns into fear

The cryptocurrency market was seeing some recovery in anticipation of the Ethereum meltdown. But as the excitement faded, the market began to see a drastic price correction. Bitcoin reached $25,000 at its peak in this latest recovery cycle. However, he has since lost most of those gains.

With that, cryptocurrency market sentiment picked up for a while after Bitcoin started its rally. At its highest point, the Fear & Greed index has a score of 42, the highest point in four months. That put him closer to greed than ever, but the market had other ideas.

Bitcoin price fell back below $22,000 and with it, market confidence plummeted. He finished Thursday with a low score of 30, putting him back in fear territory. The pullback is reflected in the cryptocurrency market, falling from $1.1 trillion to around $1 trillion at the time of writing.

As fear has returned to the market, investors are becoming more cautious when it comes to investing in the cryptocurrency market. Perpetrating traders have shown market fatigue over the past week, causing bitcoin funding rates to drop below neutral. Now the rest of the market is following suit.

Recovery in the cryptocurrency market?

With the market just starting to pull back, the correction is likely not over. These corrections are to be expected when the market grows so much in such a short time. This helps prices adjust to values ​​that reflect the current state of the market.

This means that the bitcoin price may still experience some drops. For now, the bottom is speculated to settle at a price of $17,600, so the bears will want to test support at this point. The historical movement also supports the movements, as it has done with previous bear markets.

Also, the weekend is here, and it is a period known for low liquidity. This means that Bitcoin is likely to continue its downtrend over the weekend. If the price of Bitcoin drops below $21,000, the cryptocurrency market will drop below $1 trillion.

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Ripple Labs wants to buy Celsius assets

The parent company behind the Ripple network has expressed interest in buying assets belonging to the bankrupt Celsius network.

Ripple Seeks M&A Opportunities

A Ripple Labs spokesperson said the company is considering buying certain assets from the bankrupt crypto lender. However, when asked if Ripple was interested in acquiring Celsius, the spokesperson declined to comment.

The representative stated,

“We are interested in learning about Celsius and its assets and whether any of them could be relevant to our business.”

They also mentioned that the payment services company is actively seeking strategic M&A opportunities to expand the company.

Celsius legal problems

Celsius Network has been in a lot of hot water recently, with its CEO Alex Mashinsky receiving more criticism. Mashinsky continued to assure Celsius clients that all was well, even on the verge of bankruptcy. He is also being investigated by a committee of creditors created by the US Trusteeship. The lending platform was one of the victims of the Terra LUNA implosion and had to file for bankruptcy in July after a month of frozen withdrawals.

On the other hand, Ripple Labs has done very well despite the SEC lawsuit and the bear market, mainly due to its focus on working with international clients and developing global payment networks.

Ripple interested in the Celsius case

Ripple’s legal representatives applied to the bankruptcy court to be represented in the Celsius proceedings despite not being one of the major creditors of the lending platform. The requests were approved by the court earlier this week. The above comment was made in response to inquiries about the court documents. The representative declined to provide further details on the matter.

The bankruptcy filings reveal that Celsius’s assets include digital assets held in escrow accounts, loans, a bitcoin mining operation, the platform’s own CEL token, and cash and cryptocurrencies that the company currently owns. As Ripple Labs has not signed any major deals as of yet, it should be interesting to see if this interest in the Celsius case really amounts to anything tangible.

Ripple legal problems

Ripple has been going through its own legal troubles since 2020, when the Securities and Exchange Commission sued the cryptocurrency payment provider for allegedly operating unregistered securities. The Ripple team has denied these claims, claiming that XRP is only traded as a digital currency and not as a security. The public consensus is that the lawsuit will be resolved in favor of Ripple, as the case brought by the SEC is flimsy at best.